In the blink of an eye, we are heading into week four of the 2021 season, which means another donation to Draft Kings as we are currently -$45 on the season!
It’s not quite panic stations yet.
Our losing runs in the past have still resulted in W’s in H2H games. So far this year we are a big 0-3 with not a dime coming back our way making us look like Danny Dimes and the New York Giants. However, I’m calling it now. The Giants spring an upset this Sunday and so do we, so let’s get into it!
Week 3 Reviewed
Murray kicked us off with typically his lowest-scoring game of the season so far, failing to get into the mid to late 30’s like the previous two weeks. He landed us 22.54, which was a little less than the 22.70 Austin Ekeler gave us making him the RB7 of the week.
At RB9 over the Sunday, slate was Saquon, who also hit the twenties picking up 21.40 meaning we had a very solid start to week three despite no one blowing anybody out of the water.
Then we hit the snowflakes.
Woods over Kupp wasn’t a thing and the logic failed as it was Kupp who ended the Sunday as the WR2 while his teammate gave us a very disappointing 6.80 points. My boy Rondale Moore failed to show up also, despite battling flags. All the glory went to teammate AJ Green who was a cheaper price and racked up 19.2 points compared to Moore’s 2.40. Finally at receiver Marvin Jones Jr had his quietest game of the season with a score of 12.20.
So, our receiving core put our chances to bed but just to add insult to injury TJ Hockenson failed to hit 20 points for the first time this year with a score of 3.0 along with Leo Fournette who also put up his worst score of the year with a dismal 6.40. We hit with the defence as the $2.1k Bengals gave us 12.00 but the game was dead and buried by then.
Week 4 Tips
Now for this Sunday.
I was debating lowering the stakes and playing the $3 game but I’m considering this as playing with last year’s profit, so we are sticking with the $20 – $4.25 Fantasy Millionaire and taking a no-nonsense approach heading into week four.
QB – Sam Darnold ($6,000)
Darnold has averaged 23.7 fantasy points so far this season and for $6k he has a real chance of being a value play to start us off against the leagues 31st ranked D against the pass. He’s hit the 300+ yard bonus his last two game weeks and you’d imagine he’ll have to stay competitive against this free-scoring Dallas attack.
RB – Chuba Hubbard ($5,900)
I know it’s the obvious value play with CMC missing, but at a price of under $6k it’s a must-have. He will get the volume needed to 3-X his price tag and has a pass-catching ability, which all bodes well as a stack with Darnold as our QB. Don’t worry if everyone else is on him also, keep up with the field and capitalise elsewhere.
RB – David Montgomery ($5,800)
Another play around the $6k mark leaving us plenty of value later on if these first 3 picks can have solid weeks. There is no reason why that shouldn’t be the case with Montgomery who is facing a defence ranked 30th against the run and will likely see 20+ touches in a home game against a side they are favourites against.
WR – Allen Robinson ($5,800)
That’s right we have another Bear! At some point, Allen Robinson will go off. It’s just being on him the moment that he does and taking advantage of his falling salary. A player who has been over $6k all season now falling to $5.8k against a horrible defence who are even worse against the pass than they are the run. Hopefully, this is the week.
WR – Terrace Marshall Jr – ($4,000)
Terrace has 14 targets through the first three weeks and his snap share is on the rise in Carolina out catching teammate Robby Anderson so far this season. He’s due a breakout game so he’s in as part of our stack as if he does anything good, it’ll be down to the man we have in at QB which will give us every chance.
WR – Collin Johnson ($3,200)
Who? I hear you ask. With both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton missing for the Giants this Sunday CJ will likely play as the Giants WR2 alongside Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney in the slot. With all eyes on them and no.26 out of the backfield, this could be a nice week for Johnson who saw 7 targets last week and he should see that amount again as the Giants come from behind to beat the Saints in New Orleans… and then I wake up!
TE – Travis Kelce ($8,100)
This is why we have been cheap so far. Each week only about 15% of the field play Travis Kelce. Travis Kelce is really good guys. He’s a guaranteed 20 – 25 points which the rest of the field aren’t getting at that position unless you strike lucky. This week we’ll not rely on luck and just take the 20+ points and move on to another guy who will do the same.
FLEX – Derrick Henry ($8,800)
Guess what guys. Derrick Henry is also really good! We know he will see the volume and what’s nice this season is he’s seeing a few catches out of the backfield which never happened previously. He faces the Jets and has a season average of 27.9 fantasy points this season so same again please Derrick.
DEF – Seahawks ($2,400)
As always, the best of a bad bunch towards the lower end of the market. My thinking behind this one is similar to last week. I never fancied Big Ben to do much and this weekend I feel Jimmy G is that guy and if that’s the case hopefully we’ll be in the green with the Seattle D.